Computational tool uptake dependent on validation issues
discovery processes has emerged as a major restraint to the uptake
and penetration levels of computational biology tools in the drug
discovery industry.
According to the study, failure to implement a drug discovery program with a tightly integrated in-silico simulation system, which can eliminate false leads at an early stage rather than at the clinical trial stage can add an extra $200-$300 million (€166-€249 million) in R&D costs.
Currently at an early adopter stage, the world computational biology market is mostly populated by entrepreneurial start-ups. This $60.0 million market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.5 per cent from 2004-2011 to reach $751.8 million.
"Although technical problems and lack of quality data are currently restraining uptake, the expected shift of ongoing research efforts from the academic to the commercial arena in the near future will support greater use of these tools in the drug discovery process," said Frost & Sullivan's Drug Discovery Technologies analyst, Raghavendra Chitta.
Of the four primary segments - pathway modelling and simulation, tissue modelling and simulation, cellular modelling and simulation as well as disease modelling and simulation - it is the latter, which will have the highest growth potential.
Predictive models based on the systems approach of computational biology tools have enhanced their value for drug discovery purposes.
Currently representing just under half of overall market revenues, disease modelling and simulation will register an impressive CAGR of 54.5 per cent from 2004-2011.
One could attribute this to the unique process drug discovery adopts, preferring to work backwards in an effort to eventually identify the active ingredient and its mechanism of action.
The report identifies Europe, with 25 per cent of overall market revenues as second only to the US in terms of adopting and innovating new technologies.
The US generates nearly 65 per cent of revenues with Asia (dominated by Japan) accounting for the remainder.
Seen as more of a follower rather than a leader when it comes to the adoption and innovation of new technologies, Europe, with 25 per cent of overall market revenues, currently trails the United States that generates nearly 65 per cent of revenues with Asia (dominated by Japan) accounting for the remainder.
The deluge of information the high-throughput genomics wave has created has produced the problem of varying data formats and data incompatibility.
Therefore, computational biology is emerging as the ultimate means of effectively integrating data and enabling accurate comparison of the information derived from discrete data sets.
Europe is making significant progress with initiatives such as EMI-CD project at the Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics as well as the European Union-supported COMBIO and EUSYSBIO projects.
Even as the market marches forward, challenges remain. For instance, pharmaceutical companies have been cautionary in their approach towards computational biology tools, preferring that all in-silico technologies be validated thoroughly before implementing them.
The report said that this was likely to prove an extremely expensive proposition for smaller computational biology companies.
To some extent, drug discovery companies' conservative approach towards computational biology tools can be attributed to their disappointing experience with the 'gene to drug' concept.
The losses sustained due to investments in this failed concept have made drug companies understandably cautious of novel post-genomic tools.
"In addressing this issue, companies need to work on generating success stories by developing an in-house compound and taking it till the commercial phase," said Chitta.
"Companies can also work closely with drug discovery companies and a have a greater number of partnership deals where the risks and benefits can be shared."
The report concluded that the increasing number of royalty and milestone payment agreements between computational biology tools vendors and drug discovery companies as well as strategic partnerships bode well for the faster adoption of these tools into drug discovery.
The report: "World Computational Biology Markets," is now available to purchase from Frost and Sullivan's website.
