New markets to offset patent loss and drive sales to $1tr by 2014, IMS Health
Specifically, IMS predicts that revenue generated from drugs in new markets will grow by $120 - $140bn over the next four years, which is similar to the expansion seen in established pharmaceutical markets over the last five years.
This growth, they forecast, will compensate for the expected $80bn to $100bn decline in revenue worldwide caused by patients switching to cheaper generic versions of currently patented drugs.
Murray Aitken, IMS’ senior VP of healthcare insight, suggested that: “In developed markets with publicly funded healthcare plans, pressure by payers to curb drug spending growth will only intensify, but that will be more than offset by the ongoing, rapid expansion of demand in the pharmerging markets.”
US generic switch
The analysts said that, among pharmaceutical developed markets, the impact of the generic switch will be most strongly felt by the US, explaining that six of the world's ten best selling drugs face patent loss in the country in the next two years.
They went on to highlight cholesterol regulators, antipsychotics and anti-ulcerants as the types of pharmaceutical most likely to face non-branded competition.
Despite this, IMS believes the US will continue to maintain its position as the largest drug market through to 2014, and predicted that it would grow by $60bn to $90 over the period to reach a total value of around $390bn.
After 2014 however, according to Aiken, the shape of the US market is harder to predict as the “full impact [of the country’s health care reforms] may not be felt until the latter half of this decade.”
Generics to drive research
IMS also predicted that the growth of the generic drug market will drive pharmaceutical firms to refocus their research priorities towards areas where there is unmet need and high burden of disease.
“In the areas of oncology, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and HIV, annual growth is expected to exceed 10 percent through 2014 as new drugs are brought to market, patient access is expanded and funding is redirected from other areas where lower-cost generics will be available.”
