AstraZeneca study forecasts 16.5% population affected by chronic kidney disease by 2032

By Liza Laws

- Last updated on GMT

© Getty Images
© Getty Images

Related tags Chronic kidney disease Astrazeneca study

AstraZeneca's latest modelling analysis, IMPACT CKD, presented at the 2024 ISN World Congress of Nephrology (WCN'24) in Buenos Aires, paints a concerning picture of the future of chronic kidney disease (CKD) across eight countries.

The study forecasts that by 2032, up to 16.5% of the population in these countries could suffer from CKD, with a staggering rise of up to 59.3% in advanced-stage cases.

Ruud Dobber, executive vice-president of AstraZeneca's BioPharmaceuticals business unit, stressed the gravity of these projections, stating, "Our modelling emphasises the enormous impact CKD could have on patients, economies, and the environment." He emphasized the urgency of action, highlighting AstraZeneca's commitment to collaborating with policymakers to mitigate the global impact of end-stage CKD.

The economic implications of CKD are significant, with the study estimating that nearly 125 million people across the eight countries will suffer from advanced CKD by 2032. This marks a 25% increase since 2022, when the modelling began. The economic toll of renal replacement therapy, including dialysis and transplant, is projected to reach approximately $186 billion. Furthermore, dialysis requirements are expected to surge by over 75%, contributing significantly to healthcare's carbon footprint — equivalent to adding approximately 17.3 million cars' worth of CO2 emissions.

The Impact CKD study is part of AstraZeneca's Accelerating Change Together (ACT) for CKD initiative, which aims to improve understanding and outcomes of CKD worldwide. Through the ACT on CKD programme, AstraZeneca, alongside the Global Patient Alliance for Kidney Health (GloPAKH), has launched the 'Make the Change for Kidney Health' campaign. This initiative seeks to elevate CKD on the global policy agenda, advocating for comprehensive and effective disease management strategies to combat this escalating health challenge.

Decreased kidney function

CKD is a serious and progressive condition defined by decreased kidney function, affecting nearly 850 million people worldwide, with the majority undiagnosed. The most common causes of CKD are diabetes, hypertension, and glomerulonephritis. CKD is associated with significant patient morbidity and an increased risk of cardiovascular events, such as heart failure, which can lead to premature death.

Impact CKD is an innovative study that incorporates a sophisticated simulation model to unveil a holistic projection of the extensive impacts of CKD across clinical, economic, societal, and environmental dimensions. This landmark analysis delivers the first-ever 10-year outlook on the impact of CKD, providing insight for the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia.

ACT on CKD is a programme by AstraZeneca aimed at transforming kidney health through partnerships aimed at reducing the proportion of patients progressing to kidney failure by 20% by 2025. The programme supports initiatives that raise awareness of the burden of CKD, expand early detection, drive optimization of treatment, and support health policy reforms to achieve sustainable change.

The findings of the study underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to address the growing burden of CKD globally. As the World Congress of Nephrology continues, stakeholders in the field are called upon to collaborate and develop strategies to mitigate the economic, societal, and environmental impact of CKD for a healthier future.

A number of questions have been put to AstraZeneca and therefore this article will be updated shortly. 

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